Diving into the unpredictable world of college basketball preseason rankings is like stepping into a thrilling mystery novel—where heroes rise unexpectedly and champions stumble early. It's an exhilarating challenge that keeps fans on the edge of their seats, but let's be real: predicting the future based on scraps of information can make even the most seasoned experts feel like rookies. And this is the part most people miss—how these preseason polls aren't just fun speculation; they're a testament to the sheer unpredictability of a sport where a single game or injury can flip the script entirely.
From my cozy spot in Louisville, Kentucky, I'm here with 'Coffee with Crawford,' sharing my first-ever Associated Press preseason men's basketball Top 25 ballot. I'll admit, my palms were sweaty and my heart raced as I submitted it—there's no dodging the fact that ranking teams with so little evidence under our belts is a recipe for potential embarrassment. We're essentially betting on today's strengths without peeking at March's outcomes, yet the unknowns loom large. How seamlessly will players from the transfer portal—the bustling marketplace where athletes switch schools—fit into new squads? Are there hidden gems out there, ready to burst onto the national scene and capture everyone's attention?
Take Florida, for instance: Could they reclaim the crown after last year's triumph? Or Houston—will they bounce back and finally seal the deal? And what about Purdue? Is this their moment to shine in the Final Four spotlight? Honestly, who can say for sure? It's comforting to remember that no one nailed it last year, so I'm taking solace in the shared uncertainty.
To put it in perspective, let's look at some historical data: Out of the 2024 preseason Top 10, only three squads remained in the elite echelon by season's end. Among the 14 teams that appeared in both preseason and final polls, the average deviation was a whopping 7.5 spots. Florida, the eventual national champions, kicked off ranked a modest No. 21. Meanwhile, powerhouses like Kansas, UConn, Baylor, and North Carolina started in the Top 10 but ended up unranked. On the flip side, the teams that clinched spots 7 through 11 began the year without any ranking at all. You see the pattern—basketball seasons are full of plot twists that defy early predictions.
But here's where it gets controversial: Some might argue that relying on preseason rankings is pointless, a gamble that overlooks the magic of coaching and player development. Yet, others swear by them as a barometer of potential. For my ballot, I blended a touch of collective wisdom from experts, a dash of my own intuition, and a hefty dose of insights from Bart Torvik's respected ratings system. I leaned towards squads with more returning talent, especially in this nascent stage, but remember, any blunders are squarely on me.
Without further ado, here's my take on the Top 25, complete with reasoning for each pick:
Houston: With three key starters returning from a squad that nearly clinched a national title, the Cougars are poised for greatness. Their stable core should make them formidable right from the jump, and I have high hopes they'll make another deep run to the Final Four in Indianapolis.
Purdue: Boasting a robust group of returning players and guided by one of the game's top coaches, the Boilermakers are intriguing. If they were building on a Final Four appearance, they'd top my list, but their motivation to chase that story in Indy could fuel an unforgettable campaign.
Florida: Fresh off their championship win, the Gators remain a formidable force, largely thanks to Boogie Fland's choice to join them in Gainesville. Keep an eye on Princeton transfer Xavian Lee for some excitement, and big man Alex Condon bridges the gap to last year's success.
UConn: The Huskies welcome back three starters, bolstered by Georgia transfer Silas Demary, and under Danny Hurley, they're doubling down on defensive intensity.
Duke: I get it—Duke has zero starters returning, but with Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans back, plus additions like Maliq Brown from Syracuse, and a crop of promising freshmen including Cameron Boozer, his brother Cayden, Dame Sarr, and Sebastian Wilkins, they're climbing high.
St. John's: Rick Pitino's squad centers around returning starter Zuby Ejiofor, a standout talent. They've revamped via the portal with Bryce Hopkins, Joson Sonon, and Oziyah Sellers, adding five international players—though lacking a pure point guard, faith in Pitino runs deep.
Michigan: Dusty May builds on a strong debut with a talented roster, retaining two starters from their Sweet 16 run, plus point guard Elliott Caeau (from North Carolina) and top transfer Yaxel Lendeborg (from UAB).
BYU: Kevin Young shattered records with 26 wins as a rookie coach last year, and with elite recruit AJ Dybantsa leading the charge, more victories could be on the horizon.
Kentucky: Mark Pope's team has depth for days, with Otega Oweh returning and new faces like Denzel Aberdeen (from Florida), Mo Dioubate (from Alabama), and Jaland Lowe (from Pittsburgh). Brandon Garrison kicks things off in the post, but watch for Jayden Quaintance to unleash chaos once healthy.
Louisville: Despite injury setbacks shortening Pat Kelsey's first-year magic, year two promises no slowdown. Fresh talent includes shooters Adrian Wooley (Kennesaw State), Isaac McKneely (Virginia), and Ryan Conwell (Xavier), plus top freshman Mikel Brown. Veterans J’Vonne Hadley and Kasean Pryor return, with Ali Khalifa emerging from a redshirt.
UCLA: Mick Cronin gains momentum with point guard Donovan Dent joining from New Mexico, setting the stage for success in Westwood.
Texas Tech: Grant McCasland's coaching prowess alone could place him in the Top 15, but pair that with All-American JT Toppin, and it's a recipe for contention.
Alabama: I might have the Crimson Tide underrated here, particularly if Nate Oats' squad proves to be his most potent shooting team yet.
Arizona: Tommy Lloyd retains three starters and welcomes high-scoring freshman Brayden Burries to bolster the lineup.
Arkansas: John Calipari's depth shines with experience from DJ Wagner, Karter Knox, and Billy Richmond, plus his signature influx of talented recruits.
Iowa State: T.J. Otzelberger's group excels in shooting and defense, with four key starters from last year's Ames squad ready to roll.
Tennessee: Expect the Volunteers to surpass this spot as they integrate newcomers, including Maryland transfer Ja’Kobi Gillespie, with freshman Nate Ament poised to be a force later on.
Illinois: Their starting five boasts more names ending in 'c' than any other team—think names like Cage and Chennedy—and that's quirky enough to earn them this ranking.
Kansas: Bill Self starts fresh with no returning starters but lands the nation's No. 2 recruit, Darryn Peterson, and projects former Louisville player Tre White as a starter.
Gonzaga: Mark Few has just one starter back, but adds veteran transfers like 25-year-old Tyon Grant-Foster (from multiple schools) and 23-year-old Graham Ike (from Wyoming).
Auburn: Their roster is impressive, featuring Tahaad Pettiford, but Bruce Pearl's exit has me hesitant—I've lowered them slightly, yet they could claw back up.
Wisconsin: Greg Gard's Badgers defied expectations by averaging over 80 points per game last season, and with Kamari McGee returning, more of that high-scoring action is likely.
Creighton: Greg McDermott retains a couple of starters from their upset win over Louisville, plus five rotation players, and adds Charlotte's Nik Graves at point guard, along with Josh Dix (14.4 PPG) and who scored 16.7, both from Iowa.
Michigan State: This could be a stroke of genius or a total flop, but Tom Izzo's resilience shines. Losing Kaleb Glenn to injury hurts, yet portal picks and freshmen, with a bit of ingenuity, should keep them competitive in the Big Ten.
North Carolina: It's a make-or-break season for Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill, with ample size and freshman Caleb Wilson (6-10) needing to step up early.
Quick Sips
HOOSIER POWER: If you blinked and missed it, Indiana has emerged as a powerhouse in college football. Check out my piece from Saturday's shocking victory over No. 3 Oregon for more details.
BUSY MONDAY: Jeff Brohm discusses Louisville's crucial ACC clash at No. 2 Miami on Friday. Mark Stoops addresses a tense bye week before Saturday's matchup against Texas. Jeff Walz speaks at Louisville’s women's basketball luncheon. And the AP men's basketball preseason poll drops at 2 p.m.
The Last Drop
'Last year, I was the way I was because I thought I needed to be taking over this program. Kind of lead the charge the way I was out there a little bit. I knew that early on in December. I thought we established credibility last season. And I didn't need to be that way and I could focus on what I do best: coach this football team.'
Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, reflecting on his evolved approach since arriving in Bloomington.
What do you think of these preseason rankings? Are there teams I have too high or too low that spark debate? Do you believe preseason polls are valuable, or just entertaining nonsense? Share your opinions in the comments—let's discuss!
